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Iran threat of trade retaliation Europe

Iran threatens to retaliate with commercial
Europe Source AKI, AdnKronos International - August 11, 2006
www.adnki.com/index_2Level_Italiano.php?cat=Economia&loid=8.0.328655776&par=0

To defend against possible UN sanctions over Tehran, where they were ignored the resolutions of the Security Council, the Iranian regime's propaganda waving the weapon of trade retaliation. E ', according to a confidential document circulating in government circles for several days in Tehran and in AKI Adnkronos International is in possession in which we analyze the current economic relations, trade and finance of the Islamic Republic with its major western partners. The 11-page document, was inspired by the latest data available to the Bank Markazi, the Iranian equivalent of the Bank of Italy, to ask " who has the courage to boycott the Islamic Republic ? .

analysis, a mine of facts and figures, it is noted that any economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic would mean for Europe alone each year to a waiver of the exchange equal to EUR 23 billion , in which petroleum products are mainly oil and gas. " Who is crazy enough, between the rulers of Italy or Germany - continues in the document - to give up this deal?". Words implicitly confirmed by the observation of a few days ago the Foreign Minister D'Alema that a rupture between Rome and Tehran to Italy would cost the equivalent of two financial.

relations the Islamic Republic and the West are not limited, as stated in the document, in this foreign trade. Iran is exposed against most major European banks 27 billion dollars, and a further 25 billion deposited by the Tehran government in the Western financial institutions, which could be withdrawn at any time, causing considerable damage to the banking system of the Old Continent . Ten of the major Western oil companies, including the Italian company Eni have invested $ 15 billion in various phases of South Pars, the world's largest deposits of natural gas. China alone has signed agreements with Iran for energy investment to 25 billion dollars.

Then there is the 'oil weapon. "
Currently 40 oil companies, including three Italian companies, importing 2.5 million barrels per day of crude . The Japan imported 541,000 barrels daily, if Iran decides to stop exports, would be the most affected country.
Even South Korea, which over the past three years has exported to Iran industrial and consumer goods for $ 26 billion, would come out with broken bones from a clash of trade. Any Iranian decision to close the valves of oil and gas, say the experts who drafted the document, would increase the price of a barrel of oil to a minimum of $ 100, but do not share excludes $ 125 .

Experts advise the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to go ahead with the nuclear program and not give in to international pressure "in the West as a whole can not help but maintain trade and economic relations with the Islamic Republic ".
" Any Anglo-American pressures - continues - would lead to a split very deep among the Western countries' . Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of Kayhan, the influential conservative newspaper of the Islamic Republic, agrees with the conclusions of this document. "Already some European head of government - said in an interview - called Tehran, in the days immediately following the approval of Resolution 1696 the Security Council, saying that would never accept a new resolution with sanctions ".

"We - adds Shariatmadari - we have the world in their hands and we have no hurry to talk or negotiate with anyone . " Our policy is to continue with our nuclear plans to continue to enrich uranium and produce heavy water, and expect that the West accepts this state of affairs" , warns the director of Kayhan, a very close Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. " Resolution 1696 adopted by the Security Council - notes Shariatmadari - is a bluff, as there will be a second document to implement the threats contained in this resolution" . "Countries like Italy and China - ends - have serious difficulties to survive economically to a breakdown of economic relations with the Islamic Republic " .