Confidentiality Clause Survey Revolution In Egypt

The assault on Moscow failed

The assault on Moscow failed
Carlo Bertani - August 16 2006
www.disinformazione.it

Many commentators have drawn similarities between the campaigns of Russia - Napoleon and Axis - the assault on Lebanon, if the comparison holds, we must recognize that Moscow has not been conquered and that the Israeli army must withdraw from Lebanon, humiliated and depressed.
In reality, the true "assault on Moscow," there has been since the primary objective of the war was the open clash with Syria, Assad's regime fell and the addition a new "tile" in Risiko puppet that Bush is holding open on the desk in the Oval Office. Dad has just given him, and has even learned to recognize Giorgetto Iraq, Italy and New Zealand in the Overview map: mother Barbara is so pleased with the progress of the infant that will find a nice pony and two guns caps "Pecos Bill" at the Crawford Ranch.

Without confrontation with Syria , however, the Israeli operation completely loses all meaning: the port of Tartus continues to be the terminal part of the oil pipeline from Iraq, the agreements with Turkey for new pipelines to steal water and the sources of the Tigris to bring Israel are certainly not facilitated and, icing on the cake , in November, Bush will meet in front of the American electorate of this new and sensational "victory" of U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East. Lebanon also managed to play: it is true that even the ants in their small, s'incazzano.

While acknowledging it is just a battle - and that the "endless war" of Bush and Israel continues - it is a losing battle, and a major battle, we could almost venture "decisive." All scenarios
triumphalist / catastrophic (the point of view) a few weeks ago have been diametrically reversed: a partially occupied Lebanon, Hezbollah destroyed, Israel once again showing his dominance in the area and prostrate in front of Beirut Wolfowitz at the World Bank for reconstruction are now only dreams, that in a few weeks have turned into nightmares Bush and Olmert.

The "New Middle East" envisioned by neocons and the Zionists is proving a boomerang: this war will come out certainly a new Middle East, but it will be just the opposite of what Washington foresaw and Tel Aviv. And beware: not only the Middle East to show signs of defeat Israel, but will be all over the planet to observe the fruits. How did this come about?
As I wrote on 24/7/2006 they rigged the deck of cards The Israeli strategy was really unfortunate, not only resulted in more than a thousand Lebanese civilians, but the destruction of Lebanon's infrastructure was granted only to lose a lot of international support, especially in Europe.

The toll paid by Israel has been high - about 250 dead and 3,000 wounded - and if we operate a proportion between the two populations in Italy would be like if we had a month of war in 2500 dead and 30,000 wounded.
However, Hezbollah was not weakened by the fact and at the stroke of truce can show to the world that - for the first time - a Muslim armed force has stopped IDF, the most powerful army in the area.

The Israeli newspaper Haretz [1] - the approval of UN resolution for a cessation of hostilities - emphasized that the greatest damage caused by Olmert that Israel was to have stripped "the power of deterrence", which translated into simpler terms it means losing the halo of invincibility that surrounded Israel since 1948.
The excessive use of aviation policy and the serious underestimation of the military capabilities of Hezbollah - instead it should have led to a tactical use of aviation, namely the bombing of the Shiite guerrilla positions just south of the Litani River or a little beyond - have produced the omelet: No significant achievement in military and bad diplomatic relations with many countries before, at least, "equidistant".

opinion European public has been shaken by images of death in Lebanon that Israel has sown, and certainly not enough rhetorical references to the Holocaust to remedy the damage.
Israel, however, at this juncture was betrayed by whom?
To understand the nature of the betrayal we must look more closely at what happened to the UN rather than on the battlefield.
In the days before the final resolution, the Russia had opposed the first resolution - which gave its backing to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon - claiming that he was prepared to use the veto in the Security Council. The first draft of the resolution was shelved.

The Russia - with the silent agreement of France - announced that it would submit a resolution, which called for a humanitarian truce in just 72 hours: a resolution which would have been difficult for all object, given the large number of casualties and the plight in which to pay the Lebanese population.
three-day truce however, would have allowed Hezbollah to to receive supplies: this was the "dumpling poisoning" in this Russian proposal.
At that point, the U.S. diplomacy was faced with a terrible dilemma: to follow the international isolation of Israel all the way - by vetoing the resolution "humanitarian" in Russia - or to accept a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal ?

opting for second choice, Washington has removed the "land from under their feet" to Olmert - enshrining probably his political end - but managed to save a minimum of credibility internationally on the other hand, if IDF failed in a month to come to terms Hezbollah, there was little hope that we succeed in reasonable time. Ultimately, the Rice has managed to win the Pentagon, which never managed to Powell.
There is a curious nemesis throughout the story: Israeli military leaders repeatedly criticized the U.S. for being "too soft" (sic) in Iraq, Israel claimed that only with an "iron fist" (As in the territories ...) would be possible to defeat the Iraqi insurgency.

The all too easy to "war" - actually a murder-way - that Israel has pursued for years in the territories, Israeli generals had to lose the memory of a real war against an enemy that have weapons to defend themselves. Now, in Washington and Tel Aviv will have a lot of material to be analyzed.
Finally, we should ask why so much vehemence on the Russian side. We know that the
Russia contrasts the ambitions of conquest Anglo-American (and Israeli) and in Central Asia, but never had the opposite so still. The reason? On August 21, 2006, Moscow will pay the last coins of debt inherited from the USSR, then it will be a free finch, freed from any economic link with the West.

next steps? Putin has already said the price of the ruble on currency markets and - in perspective - the payment of energy in the Russian currency, which would be another blow to the dollar.
The first victim of this absurd story will be Israel, which must review its foreign policy and even its internal equilibrium.
For too long the political debate in Israel is frozen and, if Olmert has certainly serious responsibility, one who by his silence murderess has "covered" with Mr Olmert was Shimon Peres: The profound cowardice of his silence was the seal adventure in Lebanon.
We must not forget that Shimon Peres - Nobel Peace (!) - Was the main undertaker of the internal political debate in Tel Aviv: without her acquiescence, there would have been the "big mishmash of Kadima, a non-political sense for a country that says democratic coalition that has betrayed the electorate Israel into believing that it was enough force to settle any dispute with the Arabs.

Shimon Peres was the one who shook hands with Arafat on the White House lawn, along with the murdered Rabin, and now can not play the role of a girl, because governments have ruled by Sharon delegitimized the PA for years, opening the doors of the territories Hamas .
Today, Israel reaps the fruits of this policy reckless and gets into trouble not only its citizens but also the Arab states that had granted consent - Egypt and Jordan in the first place - that will be faced with internal opposition always tougher. If one considers that in Egypt has been in place for years martial law, and that there are 20,000 political opponents in the prisons of Mubarak, one can easily imagine the difficulties that will have the old Pharaoh to take the reins in Egypt, the country that risk a fundamentalist drift. Little king of Jordan will also have his fish to fry, as well as Saudi Wahhabis proud.

The only salvation for Israel is a strong circle, a flicker of awareness that reopened the internal political debate, that suggests again the possibility of an agreement with the Arabs to Palestine . If, tomorrow, will move from IDF in Gaza and Lebanon will resume slaughtering the Palestinians, who held at bay most Arab populations? And relations with Europe - already very "cool" - how to evolve? We must consider that the peacekeeping force in Lebanon is almost entirely made up mainly by European countries that most have condemned the murderous conduct of the war, with the use of prohibited weapons (cluster bombs , chemicals, etc.).. It will be an easy "cohabitation" between the UN forces, that Hezbollah is claiming victory and IDF chewing bitter?

On the other side, the novelty and certainly the success of Hezbollah as a political movement and military structure: that he had never stood up for a month IDF?
Prime Minister Siniora will save his government - which was to be the expression of the moderate forces in Lebanon - only if you make arrangements with Hezbollah , coming out of the whole affair as the undisputed winner.
Resolution 1559 - which provides for the disarmament of Hezbollah - obviously can not be applied, probably you will come to a compromise that will provide for the consolidation of the Lebanese Shiite militia in the army, or a dual structure - as in Iran - that the regular army and a kind of militia (as the "Revolutionary Guards" in Iran, which have ground forces, sea and sky). Yearn for a peaceful disarmament of Hezbollah , when the eyes of the Lebanese was the savior of the nation, it is difficult to imagine who the authors of this "miracle"? Olmert & Associates.

The fate of forces "moderate" Lebanon is very uncertain evidence of the facts has shown that Israel does not distinguish between the different positions policies of the Arab countries (Egypt and Jordan have been warned), but now only acts based on race.
other hand, the one who had to play the role of "bad" - namely Syria - but showed restraint and did not fall into the Israeli provocation, which has come to bomb the border crossings. In addition, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have sought refuge and protection in Syria, and such hospitality any future Lebanese government must take into account.

The destruction of infrastructure Lebanon is estimated at several billion euro (3-5) and this was the second part of the plan hatched by Israel and the U.S. there would have to come into play with Wolfowitz the World Bank, for the Lebanese extortionists with its lending . After the eagles, vultures.
Instead, the success of Hezbollah has disrupted their cards in the galaxy Muslim who has not been able to defend Lebanon (read: Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia) will suffer the political consequences. In fact, Riyadh has already paid $ 1.5 billion in Lebanese banks: if they do not they will take care of Iran, as Lebanon is now completely escaped control by the West.

What disaster will come from the suburbs of Beirut and the scorched earth of the South? Linda a generation of elegant diplomatic representatives or a new band of guerrillas?
Even in Europe, the deck has been cut and return to distribute the cards, and who was believed to have the axes now finds himself with a panoply of scartine. The return of France
bully in the scenario of the Middle East - will Paris command of the UN peacekeeping force - is a defeat for the British and Americans, but especially for the British.
The challenge for the control of the Near East between Britain and France has ancient roots: the Treaty of Sèvres (1920) was established the dominance of English on Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula (except for the Hijaz) and France over Syria and Lebanon.

France - alone - would not have had the strength to impose a resolution so unfavorable to Israel, especially after Germany had secluded location with a very ambiguous. We think next winter, and the Russian gas, to make us think Mrs. Merkel.
The Russian intransigence of France has opened an unexpected window of opportunity that has been able to exploit skillfully, are not new, but the "classics" in the European balance of power: a "cooling" Paris-Berlin axis corresponds to an increase than with Moscow, with which Paris has worked for years in major military and space programs. Spain and Italy, of course, follow: our soldiers will be able to go directly employed by a General of the British Army in Basra to those of a dell'Armée Beirut.

The "tripping" between the British and French in the area do not count: a few will know that - during the anti-British uprising in 1941 Iraq - the French governor of Syria (loyal to Vichy) granted the use of railways for the transport of Syrian Axis weapons and ammunition, and more: Messerschmitt Bf-110 and CR42-FIAT worked for a short period from the base of Mosul against the Anglo-Indian who came up from Kuwait to the north and the successful (for the British) decisive battle took place - courses and historical claims - in Fallujah.
The "rust" between England and France - despite the smiles of convenience - have continued in a succession of tactical agreements (Suez, 1956) and conflicts cleverly concealed (Kosovo 1999, for the control of Trepca mines).

Today, the French troops will be deployed to the Israeli border - ostensibly to protect Tel Aviv - Israel in the past but had never liked and European troops on its borders, much less in the territories: this is a very bitter pill to swallow is that Israel, because he knows that 20 km from its borders Hezbollah will be even stronger.
The other big loser of the war in Lebanon is the - Qaeda, the Salafist and Wahhabi-inspired terrorism. During the war, now the undisputed leader of Al-Qaeda - Ayman Al-Zawahiri - turned up only a couple of times to launch a first of cowards fulminations against the West and the second communicating an Egyptian terrorist group - Jamaa Islamiya - had accepted the affiliation with the international network of terror. Both the news, in the clamor of war, have been lost as a breeze in a hurricane.

The difficulty of match for the Shiite Hezbollah became apparent, and today Al-Qaeda is on the ropes, not so much against Western enemies, but because it undermined - imagination of millions of Muslims - the largest organization of Shiite groups. The fear of losing consensus was so broad as to say to the Wahhabi imams do not call to pray for the victory of Hezbollah : a serious political mistake, which will only move further appreciation towards the Shiites.
At least theoretically, Al-Qaeda would organize the appalling attack which was to repeat a new September 11 over the skies of London, but the way things have gone not seem to have taken great advantage.

The doubt creeps in the West - No use denying it - is to understand whether this was a real attack or just a media mount: in both cases Al-Qaeda leaving defeat.
If it has been a real attack, we must recognize that even the most tattered terrorist group in the galaxy would have acted that way. Would go up in airplanes to American companies (which always fly on undercover agents), and then the two reagents were mixed to make explosives - a moment, please, I resist to the bottle ... that's it ... thank you - then they should enter the detonator - it takes me a second? Be careful, however, can break out ... - and finally to a mobile phone would have blown up the concoction: Hassan, what is the number to call? You put € 10 in the card as you had recommended?

The "way" for the attack - came with a phone call (!) From Pakistan - leaves something perplexing: even the poor Bruno - the bear killed by mercenaries - would have committed such an error by calling the director of the Abruzzo National Park. Aho: I am Bruno, I'll bear, But not 'so stupid!
All communication is now via e-mail, with the use of encrypted codes (the known Havala ) and are often preceded by swarms of viruses and spam odd to put a strain on electronic and satellite surveillance systems.
If it was just a media frame, it means that Al-Qaeda is no longer able to hit in the West, and this precisely because it has come to trace the forms and practices in the Western methods, easier to intercept by the security services.

not worth the pain of losing too much time to determine whether this was a real attack or a frame: the result is still the defeat of Al-Qaeda , lonely and suicidal terrorism, compared to the organized militias of Hezbollah - which does not engage in suicide bombings - but the conduct of the war with the methods of warfare, from Cuba to Vietnam, from Iraq to Lebanon.
groped To save the omelet, someone (read: Marco Pannella) today asked the EU entry of Israel: now some Italian political center-right (FI - AN) were appended to demonstrate how the balance of domestic Italian wretched now, with Pannella (Rosa nel Pugno - the majority) that is consistent with the extreme wing of the opposition el'UDC (opposition ) that is silent, hoping that they deliver the key input in the center left.

Who makes these proposals do not even know the ABC of the European construction, as if joining the EU was like entering a movie theater: I pay the ticket, and there remain until the hour before the closure. For
enter Europe must have first resolved all disputes over borders, to maintain an acceptable level of internal conflicts with ethnic minorities and correspond to the same full rights of ownership. Israel has not even begun to consider these problems: we think the army.

Recall that Turkey join the EU will resolve the long standing problem with the Kurds, while during the recent war - quietly - has moved troops to the Iraqi border in order to possibly hit the "sanctuaries " Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq. On the sidelines, we can see what is bristling with thorns, and the way that should lead to a separation into three parts of Iraq (Sunni, Shia and Kurds), where the Shiites would become a "branch" of Iran, Syria and the Sunnis the Kurds would eventually massacred by the Turks.

The same problem - perhaps even more complex - covers the states former Yugoslavia: Croatia not enter the EU until they solve the problems arising from the recognition of property. It is not only confiscated property Italians after the Second World War, but also those of Serbs and Muslims who were driven out by ethnic cleansing in the past decade. Similar problems involving the Serbia and Bosnia , but was refused admission procedure of Chile - years ago - when the Latin American country had all the necessary requirements, including budget parameters, to associate all 'Union.

Israel does not respect the UN resolutions, is still officially at war with Syria , confiscated the property of Palestinians without compensation, has no defined borders and disputes opened on the same: also last but not least, it should prove d ' have a state budget that is within the Maastricht criteria which - with the costs of the recent war [2] - it is very doubtful.
attempt (not too well hidden) behind this request is - once again - to involve Europe in the senseless policy of the U.S. and Israel, namely that he is "someone" stupid enough to go to war to the Arabs instead of Israel. Acca nissciun 'fess is' .

The dividing line between the two locations passes through the "rules of engagement" that will get our military is, in essence, to define who will shoot him and who's not.
desires of Israel - as Hezbollah, they say, is a terrorist organization - would be those Hezbollah fire on and cooperating with Israel, which in turn when the UN forces are not too "complacent" the bomb directly.

The Lebanese are, of course, on the opposite opinion.
The summary may be found in the essential meaning of "peacekeeping force", ie simple peacekeeping force that has the task of aggression against anyone, unless of being attacked: in short, neither more nor less than the rules of ' engagement that our soldiers in Bosnia. In addition, you can not go beyond the dramatic situation of the territories, where Israel practices the massacre as practice: a solution to the crisis must also involve the Palestinians.

If, however, Parliament will pass something different - make Iraq or Afghanistan - our soldiers are exposed to the risk that the national community does not require, as no Italian soldier has the duty to defend the Homeland in arms when the war is a war of others in which Italy has nothing to do. For no other land
coffins in Ciampino, it should be in the country there is an awareness that the rules of engagement are the basis of future mission, even the poor Bruno confident passed the German border, but was unaware of the "rules of engagement" of mercenaries.

Carlo Bertani bertani137@libero.it www.carlobertani.it

[1] Ari Shavit, Olmert must go, 12 / 8 / 2006

[2] In 2005, the deficit / GDP ratio was 2% Israeli, but the costs of the recent war (estimated to be between 1 and $ 2 billion) would shift the value of well over 3% .