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Notes for discussion of the riots in the Arab world, Michele Nobile

I have read an article by Petras, and only a minimal contribution by way of discussion, I note that: a) Without prejudice to the "underdeveloped" of the funds, the description of the oil revenue seems more relevant to Libya or Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Kuwait, less for Tunisia and Egypt, Morocco and Jordan; b) another issue is the transition from the structure of the economy, in terms of socio- economic as well as training of the mass movement, c), especially in Egypt and Libya should carefully consider the element of nationalism in the armed forces and, in particular in Libya, the element of regional and clan.

Well, I do not think this wave and the simultaneity of the crisis is resolved entirely by postulating The Same socio-political Conditions in Each Country . I wonder, thinking by ignorant, knowing only elementary data, though, for what may be the reasons for socio-economic background, it is not quite the effect of a global recession through different channels to countries where underdevelopment has exactly the same structure (and certainly, I would say, not the same story).

For example, for exporters of oil (Kuwait Oman Qatar, Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iran, Iraq), between spring 2008 and early 2010, the oil revenue has been halved, but go then improving, I do not have data for Libya, but will Online.

For countries that are major exporters of hydrocarbons, including Egypt and Tunisia, contributing to the contraction of GDP in the fall of industrial production (most serious in Tunisia), emigrants' remittances (ca . 4-5% of GDP for Egypt and Tunisia, and 20% in Lebanon, -2 points of GDP on average in North Africa in 2009 to 2007), private investment, tourism (Egypt and Tunisia lost over a 1 point of GDP in 2007-2009, 14% of the GDP in Jordan in 2007, -4 points in 2009), foreign direct investment (halved in Egypt in 2007-2009, to 4% of GDP).

What is certain, whether or not states characterized by oil revenue, which is in North Africa and the Middle East under-delivery is acute with the highest unemployment rates the world, for adults and youth, and lower rates of labor force participation of the world. A growth rate of 4-5% of GDP, which would be a windfall for the developed countries, this is totally inadequate to cope with population growth; Asia, overall, traveling instead on dual layers.

One day a traveling salesman who has no money to buy the license and that the police often confiscate the goods himself on fire.

At this point the numbers are no longer needed: the international recession should have further exacerbated the situation by going through different channels, but this act is to ignite the political revolt against a regime which not only perpetuates the status of things, but whose corruption makes it difficult to fend for living well. I'd like to understand the molecular pathways of anger and indignation creeping before the explosion.

There is also another fact quite safe. The current account and fiscal deficits are considerably worse in the region. Especially for countries that do not export power and where there have been or will be addressed, this will only get worse. Which means 'austerity' I know that even if the new governments will see it well. And I also know that, though for now the current radical Islamic not seen, will emerge in the future.